Robert Kennedy College

Gold and Commodities in your Portfolio ?

a) I maintain my limited confidence in the U.S. market because I believe that there are better opportunities in Europe and Emerging markets. Last month investors pulled 10.7 billion out of ETFs tracking the U.S. market. With 90% of the Americans concerned about the economy (CNBC poll). As it is not sure if President Obama will reach a compromise over the extension of Bush tax cuts there might be further problems ahead. With negative sentiment partially fueled by high unemployment I remain cautious.

I think that the European and Emerging Markets present better opportunities;

b) The Irish confirmation that a bail out from the European Union won't be necessary is yet another good news from the highly under-estimated European market.
Europe might still be a value play - as a big exporter it also allows investors to benefit from the raise in Emerging Markets through an European based company.

c) Gold and precious metals might reach further highs by the end of the year. This is mostly because many institutional investors want to hedge against further slow downs in developed economies and, with paper so much paper printing, it seems the most sensible option. Central banks are also expected to be, for the first time in two decades, net buyers.

Other commodities, like cotton that climbed 62% since last year on supply shortage, represent a good investment opportunity too. Obviously I wouldn't recommend *one* specific commodity (especially one at record highs) but through a broad commodity index (that includes precious metals) investors can obtain a good hedge.

d) Swiss banks have turned the page and will continue to surprise positively. These banks and some of the European ones are still a buying opportunity.

I would tend to favor these banks active in the ETFs market with their own product. There is clearly a switch from active funds to ETFs (in Switzerland the number of ETFs increased from 80 in 2005 to 486 today) and growth will be in this segment of the market. Banks that were early in offering ETFs will certainly benefit in the future.

In Short:

- Cautious about the U.S. market, more positive toward Europe and Emerging Markets;
- Gold and Previous metals might rich further highs, broad commodity index ETFs to play an important role for hedging.
- Swiss and European banks, particularly ETF providers given the high growth in this market segment.

Reader Commentary

  1. May 30th, 2011
    at 11:37 am
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