In this CNBC appearance I am taking a more conservative stance. I think that the market rally since my latest interview of end April might not sustain momentum if, as it is likely, some of the earnings will disappoint.
In terms of competitiveness in 10 years from now (and perhaps well before) both India and China will lead as very competitive countries. Why? because of knowledge. Knowledge is something that many European students are abandoning and Indians and Chinese students are embracing. If you look in the majority of British post-graduate classes, including PhD's, the majority of students is no longer from the UK or Europe but either China or India.
This will soon translate with in a very compelling competitive advantage for both countries.
Where can some other countries, like Switzerland, succeed ? sectors like medical technology (mostly due to difficulty to acquire good knowledge in a short amount of time and of course the patent and copyright protection) are set to maintain their advantage for a longer time.
Some Swiss companies in this field are Nobel Biocare (Dental implants), Sonova (Hearing aids), and Straumann (Dental implants and restorative dentistry) are good examples. I am particularly positive about the last two.
Hopefully we will have better than expected earnings and I will be proven wrong but I feel that this might not be the case and I invite investors to be cautious. Given the bad news from the U.S it is well likely that the market might not be able to sustain the same rally till the end of this year.
Reader commentary
Bernard.mapalala
August 4th, 2009 at 03:23pm
The global recession is an opportunity for African countries to put up their act together by polishig their financial systems, strengthening their transport infrastructure, attaining self sufficiency in food so as to become net exporters to a hungry world.
Mustapha M.O
July 25th, 2009 at 08:13pm
I quite agree the fact that there is gneeiobal economic recession,notwistanding most developing countries need to embark on projet that would improove the living standard of their populace.
Modeste Irategeka
July 24th, 2009 at 09:05am
I thoroughly agree with your point; the only quandary on that forecast is the brain drain typically due to conflict, lack of opportunity, political instability or health risks and which prevail in a large part of those two countries as well as in many other Asian and African countries.
Cheers,
Modeste
Dave
July 23rd, 2009 at 04:58pm
I Think All Your Comments Are Very Good Maybe A Recession Now Might Be A Good Thing We Must All Thinh Hard Regards Dave
Hans Noteboom
July 21st, 2009 at 04:19am
The question may be if the recession could work as a wake up call for western societies. Have we not been too comfortable for too long a period of time, with our children taking wealth for granted and seeing it even as a right to have it? Hopefully some lessons have been learned that greed in the end does not work, does not feel good and is not contributing to a sustainable society. Let's get to work and restructure our world in a sustainable way taking into account the environment, using more renewable energy and apply corporate social responsibility. The recession surely can make us all think that we have to change.
Jignesh Sanghavi
July 20th, 2009 at 09:18pm
I agree partly to your opinion. Your comment about education inclination of Indians and chinise student is very true and valid
on other hand, One area where India and china seems to be lagging behind is their commitment to innovation and research. Number of patents filed from western countries are far higher than India and china. This innovation and intellectual property is the force that may hold westerners still ahead for a long period of time.
Cheers Jigs
Donald Davies
July 20th, 2009 at 06:17am
Think of Europe during the Enlighenment, innovation, science, education, knowledge..... we need the same again & quick