Europe out of time, Leadership needed
Europe out of time, Wall of Money needed
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Once again the weekend is over without any significant development from the Troika. Next week a new round of discussion about new austerity plan is planned but is Europe running out of time? YES !
In my opinion the market damage is now far greater than what politicians expected. This was caused by a total lack of leadership in the Eurozone.
It is clear from the drop in the commodity indices signals that the market is now preparing for the worse: a Greek default & slow global growth.
A Greek default has to be avoided at all costs. Unfortunately there is only one player that could help the widespread contagion: the European Central Bank. What markets sentiment needs now is not a simple firewall but a Wall of Money! (represented by prompt extraordinary measures).
The ECBE is the only institution that can act independently and without the parliamentary ratification of new measures. I don't see how the EFSF could become operational soon enough to calm the markets.
European Growth in serious danger
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I fail to understand how in a low growth environment austerity measures alone will stimulate the economy. In this regard I see the U.S. policy more appropriate to deal with low growth than the European austerity that, in my opinion, will not produce great results.
Commodities and Gold: what is safe?
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The current Gold correction was mostly due to margin calls and the cash needs from several investors. Additionally Gold is obviously reacting to a stronger dollar as it did in 2008. I still think that Gold, over the long term, will continue to be a good hedge in a portfolio. I see the further corrections in Gold as a buying opportunities as in the current climate there is no better currency.
This is not applicable to Platinum and other precious metals linked to an industrial usage.
Strategy: Buy Armageddon-proof multinationals
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I still think that a Greek default will be avoided. Starting from this assumption many European companies are now at very attractive valuations and represent a good buying opportunity. I favor consumer staples and armageddon-proof multinationals.
Obviously this is applicable only to mid-long term minded investors that should also maintain an allocation to Gold.
Reader Commentary
at 08:41 pm
Yes!,out of time europe can lead to good leardership now.looking old rulling,marking,banking and economy relations laws and regulation,time can fix in.To stable central bank that is causing cash/cost push inflation in europe nation,we have to look at monetary circulation and printing of low duration money to minimize prize of consumable and asset goods or capital goods.
Then those that do not have leadership quality and quantity should be remove and replaced.i like to work in ur central bank.