Too Many Black Swans in the same Month
Too Many Black Swans in the same Month
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In the last weeks the market has faced a number of unprecedented and unexpected events or black swans:
1) The prolonged European paralysis on Greece that had a negative effect throughout Europe: Italy, Spain but also in the German Stock Market;
2) The very damaging discussion on the debt ceiling - possible default (unthinkable even a few months ago)
3) Very erratic forex market with Swiss franc hitting daily all time highs vs. Euro and Dollar
4) The S&P Downgrade as the last surprise;
In this environment investors are unable to assess risk and left with no confidence on equities. This translates in a market crash as we have just experienced.
I think that the U.S. and Europe will remain for a while in slow growth mode but I don't see a new recession or double dip. I think the Fed has taken an appropriate decision after the puzzling and totally illogical S&P downgrade.
This should make everyone reflect on how much investors wrongly rely too much on rating agencies to make their decisions.
- How to invest in irrational markets ?
Markets both in Europe (particularly Italy and Switzerland) and the U.S. are highly oversold.
Given the high level of volatility I see very attractive valuations in U.S. Tech companies with worldwide operations and lot of cash (e.g. Nasdaq 100 components like Apple, Google, Microsoft etc).
The downside risk is very limited at this point.
The problem with the Swiss market is the extremely high Swiss franc - if that trend reverses many Swiss equities will rebound.
- Gold doesn't need a AAA Rating !
Gold has been a good place to hide in this selloff. I have previously forecasted 1800 by end of the year and we are very close: this said I would be cautious as corrections in Gold might occur soon.
This said I believe that, over the longer term, Gold will continue to raise and provide with a good hedge toward risk.
Platinum is now cheaper than gold hence close to its costs: I do see a rebound coming in the next few months.
Reader Commentary
at 10:38 am
As i have comment yesterday.too much factors black swans effects of economy boom,leads to flontuations,receptions,recession on months inability by the law to control the black swans.not benefits from them!,so we must enjoy the month by fighting against black swans,month economy parasites.i can now live in booming economics manage and leading equity change balance economy innovations.