Robert Kennedy College

Europe on Sale

Greek drama last act ?
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Today's vote, that is expected to have even an higher majority than the one of yesterday, should hopefully close the short term problems not only for Greece but for European banks and the European markets.
Many question remain: are higher taxes, without some strong pro-growth initiatives, going to be a viable solution to Greece ?
Another risk is the deterioration of investors confidence in other European peripheral economies. For this reason a default event has to be avoided at all costs.

Europe on sale
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European stocks are valued very favorably in comparison with other part of the World. In addition to low P/E and P/B multiples these companies often pay very attractive dividends. Many European conglomerates trade at very low valuations that do not give them sufficient credit for their growth in emerging markets.

Another sector on sale is certainly banks. While uncertainty will reign till the upcoming stress tests Several European retail banks will benefit from the raising interest rates and are very attractively priced. These banks that have solved their recapitalization issues are a good investment opportunity.

European Consumer Discretionary
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The recent IPOs of Prada and Ferragamo reaffirmed that many of the European consumer discretionary will benefit from the increased demand from emerging markets and are a good investment. These companies have two of the main ingredients of a good investment: pricing power and long term competitive advantage.

-You can't print Oil
Despite the IEA release from the strategic reserve crude oil is now back at the same pre-intervention levels.
This shows the danger of intervention in the commodities markets that, sooner or later, will be neutralized by the supply and demand fundamentals. While commodities will remain volatile we are now at more realistic levels that present a good long term opportunity.
Gold will continue to perform well and I will take any future drop, to be expected in the summer, as a buying opportunity.

In short
Strategy: European Equities on Sale
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- The resolution of the Greek problems should calm the markets;
- European stocks remain "on sale" due to low valuations.
- European consumer discretionary companies will benefit from their pricing power and long term competitiveness;
- Some European banks present an interesting opportunity.
- Intervention in the Oil market from the IEA was, as of now, not effective. Supply and demand balances (and particularly growth rate in China) remain the crucial factor.

Reader Commentary

  1. August 7th, 2011
    at 08:19 pm
    Ayo ohiozokhai says:

    On your statement of europe economy.economy that does not meet with the starndereds of SAS,In their goods and services operations to infective obey the world monetary and production,industry,labour,going concern,market good and services,house hold and goverment rules on Gp,Gdp,NP,Ndp,and INDP.,In business equilibrum of prices,goods,service and consumption,has no sales,but inflation as demand pull,cash push and structural placing of equities fall of the world money and product market.which can cause hunger and over circulation of money value effect on demand and supply in goods and service.conglumerating is not a good factors to make sales but,quality and quantity of goods sold for service and consumption.if like,expirery date,storage,area of distribution,health,price targ,brandy is no satisfied by those whom these good are made for uses, it can render retaillers barckrupt and nations sick and dead in inflation.the shift of economy deflations,i think europe need for a better leading change,stabilities economics innovations.europe is in world market businesses accounting,finance and economic and business statistical fall in living,goods and service.the ploting hypotenses can not be determine.

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