Dollar might find unexpected strength
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from bloomberg.com
Bloomberg News, sent from my iPhone.
Commodities Sink Most Since 2009 as Stocks Fall, Dollar Gains
May 5 (Bloomberg) 2011 -- Commodities plunged the most in two years, stocks worldwide posted the biggest three-day drop since March and the dollar rallied after American jobless claims unexpectedly rose and the European Central Bank signaled it will wait until after June to raise interest rates.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 commodities sank 4.8 percent at 12:10 p.m. in New York and has lost 8.1 percent this week. Silver tumbled 7.4 percent, extending its decline since April 29 to 25 percent, and oil sank 5.9 percent. The MSCI All- Country World Index of shares in 45 nations fell 0.7 percent to 349.22, extending its three-day loss to 2.4 percent. The S&P 500 was unchanged after dropping 0.8 percent. The dollar gained 1.6 percent against the euro, making commodities quoted in the greenback more expensive for holders of other currencies.
U.S. claims for employment benefits jumped to 474,000 last week amid auto-plant shutdowns, exceeding the median economist estimate of 410,000 in a Bloomberg survey, while worker productivity declined. The euro weakened after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised some investors who expected a quicker move to fight surging inflation.
“Both equities and commodities had a big run,” said Mike Ryan, the New York-based chief investment strategist for Wealth Management Americas at UBS Financial Services Inc., which oversees $741 billion. Following the U.S. jobs report, “anyone wanting to take some profits now has an excuse to do it.”
Rallies in 2011
The S&P measure of commodities prices had surged 20 percent in 2011 through April 29. The MSCI stock gauge closed at the highest level since June 2008 on May 2 after rallying 8.2 percent since Dec. 31 following first-quarter earnings that beat estimates from 57 percent of its companies that posted results since April 11.
In addition to the employment data, a separate report today showed the productivity of U.S. workers slowed in the first quarter and labor costs rose as a growing economy prompted companies to boost employment. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 46.2, the lowest level in more than a month, as rising fuel costs squeezed American household budgets.
“The economic outlook is looking more challenging,” said Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which oversees about $84 billion in assets. “People have been crowding into stocks and commodities, but with the additional slowdown in the U.S. and the more difficult employment situation, there’s suddenly more uncertainty.”
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Reader Commentary
at 06:31 am
fools gold, you cannot eat it, burn it, drink it. food, farm land and labor are the bull works of man economy.III
at 12:14 am
Why all this frenzy about gold?
While everyone is "buying" the stuff, there is hardly any being produced/mined that matches the amounts being "bought".
Chances are the actual manufacture/mining of the quantities of gold which are being bought will never be realized. Doesanyone have a comparison curve of virtual versus actual gold "stocks". Purchasing and wealth imagination..... pardon me... "creation, replacing common sense again?
Less sexy metals are much more valuable in predicting true (intrinsic) economic value. After all, what you can see and touch is all you will ever have.
And to fork out USD 1500 for an ounce of trincket, smacks of how the Conquistadors cheated the Inca's and Aztec's of their true wealth. As the Kismet song goes......"Bangles, baubles and beads".
For industrialists Nickel, Copper, Chroom, Molybden and plain old iron will soon be hard to come buy, unless they are prepared to wait 12-18 months for any purchase to be realized. And you can't build infrastructure like you can imagine the Emporors' new clothes. The number of capital projects being deferred and shelved is mind boggling. But who tracks which projects are planned and which are actually being realized?
The manufacture/mining of these metals just cannot keep pace with demand. And recoverable stocks are depleting very rapidly in mature mines..........like oil.
Gold is worth as much as the fools listening to the stock markets will believe it is worth, while I thought the financial money system dumped the gold standard way back in the 1970's anyway?
It appears once again that the value of a commodity is relative to greed.... pardon me........need. As Richard III cried while retreating from the chaos he had created "A horse A horse, My Kingdom for a horse."
I am sure nobody in his army cared to hear him!